Skip to main content

Situation Report

History of the region

The country of Novograd was formerly part of a larger entity within the old Soviet bloc. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it gained independence. While its inland territory is quite vast, a majority of its value and population exist on its coastline along its southern border. To the east, it shares a border with Borealos, a recent ally to western nations due to its strategic location. Historically, the area has been prone to various forms of illicit activities due to its location and access to the Black Sea

Known countries and factions operating

Borealos - Borealos Defense Force [BDF] (Friendly)

  • Deployed to their west border, handling border control and securing coastlines and ports

Novograd - Novograd People's Legion [NPL] (Neutral)

  • Securing key positions across the region
  • Potential hostility from corrupt units operating within their armed forces

Novograd - Novograd Security Forces [NSF] (Neutral)

  • Has known to take bribes from [REDACTED]

Unknown - Black Bear Raiders [BBR] (Hostile)

  • Has been having an increasingly high success rate of raiding commercial vessels inbound and belonging to Borealos with occasional ambushes inland against military convoys with much less success

Paramilitary - Whitewater PMC (Hostile)

  • Has deep ties to state actors and has significant level of access to intelligence resources
Current Situation

In recent months, tensions between Borealos and Novograd have been escalating, primarily driven by a series of incidents and longstanding grievances. Despite efforts from both sides to maintain a delicate balance, underlying mistrust and competition for regional dominance have fueled the friction.

  • Novograd's emergence as an independent entity following the dissolution of the Soviet Union brought about a reconfiguration of power dynamics in the region. Borealos, with its more strategic location to western interests, garnered more attention and bolstered its position through alliances while Novograd found itself grappling with internal challenges, including corruption within its armed forces.
  • Incidents of illicit activities, including smuggling and piracy, have plagued the region for years. Novograd's efforts to secure key positions have often been undermined by corrupt elements within its armed forces, leading to accusations of complicity in criminal enterprises. Borealos, meanwhile, has focused on bolstering its defence capabilities, particularly along its eastern border shared with Novograd.

The beginning of the escalation:
A series of maritime incidents occurred along the contested maritime boundaries between Borealos, Novograd and nearby islands. These incidents involve confrontations between naval vessels, coast guard patrols, and civilian fishing boats from both sides. 

Novograd, facing internal challenges and accusations of corruption within its armed forces, has been unable to effectively combat the activities of groups like the Black Bear Raiders, who have intensified their raids on commercial vessels and military convoys.

Borealos accuses Novograd of turning a blind eye to the activities of these hostile paramilitary groups and providing tacit support through corrupt elements within its security forces. In response, Borealos has increased its support for counterinsurgency operations and border security measures, further exacerbating tensions between the two nations.

The rise of the Black Bear Raiders:
A notorious group operating in the region, have experienced a significant uptick in their activities and hostilities, further complicating the already tense situation between Borealos and Novograd.

  • The Black Bear Raiders have demonstrated an increased capacity to conduct maritime piracy, targeting commercial vessels navigating through the Black Sea. Their operations have become more sophisticated, utilising speedboats and armed raiding parties to hijack cargo ships and seize valuable goods. These attacks not only pose a direct threat to maritime trade but also undermine the stability of the region's maritime routes, prompting concerns from international stakeholders. 
  • In addition to their maritime piracy activities, the Black Bear Raiders have also escalated their attacks on military convoys inland. These ambushes, while less frequent than their maritime operations, have proven to be highly disruptive, causing casualties among Borealos and Novograd military personnel and undermining efforts to maintain border security. The raids have highlighted the vulnerability of military supply lines and the challenges of combating asymmetric threats in the region.
  • There are suspicions that the Black Bear Raiders may be receiving external support from Whitewater, either in the form of funding, weaponry, or logistical assistance. The exact nature of this support remains unclear, but it has enabled them to sustain and escalate its activities despite efforts by Borealos and Novograd to counter their operations. The presence of Whitewater further complicates efforts to address the threat posed by the Black Bear Raiders and adds another layer of complexity to the rising tensions.

The United Kingdom reacts:
In response to the heightened security threats in the region, the UK Foreign Office has adopted a heavy-handed approach, pressuring relevant parties to take decisive action to address the situation. This diplomatic pressure includes advocating for international intervention and urging regional actors to cooperate in combating piracy and securing maritime routes. The UK's proposal for intervention signifies its willingness to take proactive measures to safeguard its interests and protect the broader interests of international trade. Intervention will involve various forms of assistance, including precise raids on key targets, intelligence sharing, and capacity-building initiatives aimed at enhancing the capabilities of regional security forces.

Confirmation of Whitewater operations:
Recent intelligence and reconnaissance efforts have confirmed the presence of Whitewater operating in the region. Known for its mercenary activities and deep ties to state actors, it has established a significant presence, raising concerns about its motives and potential impact. While concrete evidence linking them to Black Bear Raiders is scarce, circumstantial evidence highly suggests possible collaboration and the reason for the high uptick in their recent activity and new found success in targeting commercial vessels.

Territorial dispute:
The largest island located to the south of the region is a focal point of contention between Borealos and Novograd, both asserting historical claims to its ownership. The island's strategic location in the maritime domain amplifies the stakes, as control over it could provide advantages in terms of maritime surveillance, resource exploitation, and access to shipping lanes.

Complicating the territorial dispute is the island's role as a safe haven for paramilitary groups such as the Black Bear Raiders and Whitewater. These groups exploit the island's semi remote nature to conduct illicit activities. Despite acknowledging the presence of these groups, Borealos and Novograd have been unable to come to any agreements on a solution to the situation. Borealos negotiated to conduct anti-piracy operations but Novogrod considered any military actions or personnel on the island an act of aggression and unacceptable. 

The deployment of Novograd Security Forces remaining on the disputed island stands as a rare agreement between Borealos and Novograd, albeit a limited one. Both nations tacitly consent to allowing the existing Novograd police presence to maintain law and order on the island, more so in the current situation with the rise of illicit activities. However, this agreement represents the extent of cooperation between the two sides in recent years, as they remain deeply entrenched in their respective positions regarding the broader territorial dispute. Overwhelmed by the uptick in violence and lacking significant resources, the Novograd police force faces significant challenges in effectively enforcing authority on the island, underscoring the limitations of relying solely on law enforcement measures to address the challenges of a well armed and organised group in the region. 

An intervention plan is agreed upon:
In a significant development, Novograd reluctantly agreed to the intervention plan proposed by the UK Foreign Office, which involves deploying a task force commanded by Strategic Command to address the escalating security threats in the region. The agreement marks a departure from previous reluctance to external involvement, reflecting the severity of the situation and pressure put upon both countries to find a solution to an untenable international situation.

While the decision to accept UK intervention reflects an acknowledgment of the need for external assistance, it also carries implications for regional dynamics and sovereignty considerations. The presence of foreign military forces could exacerbate existing tensions and trigger backlash from nationalist elements within Borealos and Novograd. The full scope of the intervention and duration till the situation is resolved are currently unknown and will be assessed on a week to week basis.

No Comments
Back to top